A bit of a contrarian take: There is 0 chance that what Trump suggested actually happens. There are a million reasons why it's almost impossible and also a terrible idea. Palestinians aren't going anywhere. I'm also someone who mostly rejects the Trump is playing 8-D chess spin on stuff, as I made clear with tariffs this week. With that said, I do think Trump's comments today actually can make a path forward more likely. What people don't realize is that until 5 min ago, Hamas and their allies were convinced that the result of the war they started on 10/7 would be Israel being abandoned and a Palestinian State. They thought they would be rewarded for starting and pursuing this war, despite the enormous cost to people in Gaza. They had every reason to believe that because the history of the conflict suggested that's where we would end up. By Trump loudly proclaiming that not only would they not be rewarded for starting this war with a state, but they might also lose Gaza (& maybe even the West Bank) for doing so, it completely changes the incentive structure Hamas has in pursuing the conflict. It undermines the motivation key terror sponsor and allies have in encouraging the conflict. it upends decades of strategy focused on trying to bribe Palestinian leaders into giving up on their pursuit of conflict. It hasn't worked. Trump is throwing the stick out there and taking the carrot of the table. The purpose is to try to get them to beg him to put the carrot back on the table. I'm not saying it will be effective, but the policy of simply rewarding terrorism has also clearly failed. Any future resolution to Gaza has to be views as changing the direction there, not simply rewarding terrorism and setting it up for a future war.
See Tweet