Ok now that Edan is home.... There has been a major blocking point in the negotiations over how to end the conflict in Gaza. Qatar, Tehran, and Hamas want this to end in a way where Hamas survives in power, has control of the area, and can rebuild to prepare for a future attack. So their main goal is to trade hostages for freeing up terrorists without giving up power. They’ve just been buying time to try to force that outcome. They don't particularly care how many Palestinians are sacrificed in the meantime. Israel’s goals are the opposite. They want the hostages home, but they can’t accept an outcome where Hamas is in power and can rebuild for a future attack. It’s a fundamental disconnect. The strategy from the Tehran axis has been to try to create daylight between the United States and Israel to try to force their preferred outcome, since it was clear a military victory was not possible. The campus protests, media collusion, and information war were all central to that strategy. It was a successful one in pushing Biden to consistently break with Israel and try to micromanage their war effort. When Trump took over, he emphasized that he wasn’t going to spend his time micro-managing Israel’s war effort or buying into the information war narratives. At the same time, Qatar has been trying to buy its way into Trump’s orbit for years, but any amount of pushing from them wouldn’t change the disconnect mentioned above. Trump’s main concern is ending the war and getting credit for bringing hostages home, but he basically understands why Israel can't accept Hamas staying in power. So, where did that leave everyone? Stuck. Qatar and Hamas don’t want to pursue any long-term deal that removes Hamas from power, and Israel can’t agree to any deal where they stay in power. The former also don’t want to give up their leverage (hostages) without being able to pursue the kind of deal they want. Unless someone was willing to give up one of their fundamental requirements to end the war, there was no easy path forward. At least as long as the U.S. wasn’t forcing one side or another to do so. As such, the Tehran axis decided to cleverly adjust its strategy. Instead of trying to create a wedge between Israel and the U.S. via the information war/sympathy, they would instead try to do so by appealing to Trump’s personal goals of being seen as the guy who got a deal and freed the hostages. So, for example, that’s what you saw with the Houthis, where they agreed to stop attacking ships to get U.S. attacks to stop while continuing to attack Israel. It allowed Trump to claim credit for having stopped the Houthis from attacking the shipping routes, thus separating the immediate interests of Trump from those of Israel. Now, on paper, this dynamic clearly worries pro-Israel people because it looks like Trump is throwing Israel under the bus in order to be able to say they got a deal and appease Qatar. Suddenly, you also had a lot of leaks about Bibi and Trump having fallen out over Iran, Gaza, Yemen, a Palestinian state, etc. All of that seemingly plays into the new Hamas/Qatar strategy. In the minds of the Tehran axis, their strategy is working. They were openly celebrating it on yesterday despite the fact that they got nothing substantive from agreeing to release Edan Alexander. It’s obviously possible that’s what is going on. But stick with me for an alternative hypothetical that I believe, based on various conversations, is just as likely: What if senior people in the Trump administration understand and anticipate this strategy, and planned accordingly? It’s instead a wise counter strategy to force Hamas/Qatar to give up concessions by thinking it will help drive this wedge. The perception of it working encourages them to keep going and give up parts of their leverage (such as releasing hostages and a system for aid that prevents Hamas theft) without actually agreeing to keep Hamas in power? In other words, play into the strategy of Qatar but only to the extent it lulls them into giving us what we want without actually giving them what they ultimately want. Eventually the admin would have to drop the hard line on Hamas/ that they have to give up on the idea of staying in power/armed, but you can get a lot of hostages home before then, stringing them along. I realize that sounds a little bit like the traditional 8-Dimensional chess takes, but I am not someone reluctant to criticize the admin when they are wrong. Ex: Trump is wrong to accept a plane from Qatar for AF1. But sincerely believe that it fits with the thinking of at least some senior people within the administration.
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