Eliezer Yudkowsky
That's *more* efficient than waiting 5 years for Reality to smack you in the face with the predictable outcome, but a slow grind downward is still a strange way for an efficient probability update to behave! Were traders slowly losing hope in a miracle that never arrived?
Kyle
TIL that from 2002 - 2009, newspapers stocks went down in a straight line bc the market foresaw the disruption of the internet yet earnings continued growing for 5 straight years... until they didn't.
