Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸
Really fantastic summary. Ukraine can disrupt Russia with deep strikes, but they cannot convert that disruption into a positive decision. And meanwhile Russia can hit back far harder. In my observation, the Ukraine news cycle goes like this: It’s so over for Ukraine We’re so back for Ukraine Potential Yalta moment for Ukraine Back to its so over for Ukraine Rinse and repeat. Except every time Russia puts a new deal on the table, it’s with worse terms for Ukraine and Ukraine is farther from the table itself.
Balazs Jarabik
2/ Ukraine has become more capable of imposing costs on Russia. Yet its own strategic position is becoming more (and more) fragile. The main distinction is between disruption and decision: Kyiv can hurt Russia, but cannot convert this into victory or acceptable peace.