Arijit Chakravarty
The risk of sudden catastrophe is also on the table. Repeated viral evolution leaves the risk of higher IFRs open. (Note that IFR doesn't have to reach SARS levels- a Delta-like IFR (1.5%) could still rival the 1918 flu in death toll) https://x.com/arijitchakrav/status/1847461061475078543 (15/)
Arijit Chakravarty
We showed in a paper a couple of years ago that transmission is minimally impacted by fatal COVID-19 outcomes. Put simply, the virus could evolve to kill everyone it infects and not take a hit to transmission. Small changes in IFR can have big impacts (see screenshot). (15/)
