Clément Molin
After lagging behind in a number of drone technologies, Russia 🇷🇺 is slowly catching up on Ukraine 🇺🇦 Despite persistent lag in certain key sectors, specifically drone connectivity, bombers, UGVs, and mid-range strikes, ground has been made up in a number of areas. 🔸Interceptor drones: Despite a critical lag that peaked in May and June, Russian drone operators have managed to increase interceptions of Ukrainian mid- and long-range drones and heavy bombers. There is still work to be done, particularly regarding Ukrainian ISR capabilities, but Russia started from a significant disadvantage. Substantial resources have been diverted to C-UAS (Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems) efforts. 🔸Long-range strikes: With the arrival of a series of jet-powered drones (and even missiles), including the Geran-4, Geran-5, S8000 Banderol, and others, Russia is improving strike precision and effectiveness while using fewer drones. The Geran-4 has been used extensively as a counterpart to the FP-2 for mid-range strikes, while also continuing to conduct long-range missions. 🔸Mid-range strikes: Russia's biggest issue is a lack of connectivity, which limits the range of many drones; the deployment of Rasvet satellites will take time. Nevertheless, the BM-35 mid-range drone, including a new jet-powered version, appears to be seeing renewed activity in the distance. Meanwhile, the Molniyah (low-cost and mass-produced) and the Gerbera (a Shahed decoy, sometimes carrying a warhead) are conducting strikes both at the front and further behind. 🔸FPV drones: Russian FPV drones, whether fiber-optic or standard models, continue to outnumber their Ukrainian counterparts, carrying out massive daily strikes along the front line. The Russian military was not particularly behind in this area to begin with, but it continues to make progress. Only problem ? Ukrainian jamming that can prevent entire directions from using classic drones for few hours... 🔸The organization of Russia's drone forces continues to strengthen. Unlike Ukraine, which employs a wide variety of drones, Russia concentrates production on a few specific models; this allows for mass production but carries potential risks in the event of Ukrainian strikes or the obsolescence of certain systems. The gradual reorganization of drone teams within Russian units (a topic frequently discussed by @kriegsforscherD ), the large-scale training taking place in schools, and continuous preparations for a long war are all concerning developments for the future, not only for Ukraine but for Europe as well. At present, I believe Ukraine still holds an advantage in several areas, particularly those involving Starlink, electronic warfare, and FPV drones. This lead could widen if the right decisions are made, especially regarding the procurement of specific drones and technologies. However, Russia has managed to narrow the significant gap that existed up until the spring and continues to expand its long-range strike capabilities...
