Dan Luu

@danluu · Twitter ·

How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been? https://danluu.com/zitron/

Feb 2024: "I believe we're reaching the upper limits about what generative AI can do and how accurate its outputs can be." Wrong4 March 2024: "Have We Reached Peak AI?"; another prediction that hallucinations mean that AI progress is limited to then-current levels Wrong April 2024: "As I previously warned, artificial intelligence companies are running out of data ..."; another prediction that models can't improve because there's no more data Wrong June 2024: OpenAI growth is stalling (with the implication it will continue to stall), which will lead to some kind of collapse of OpenAI Wrong (it could be the case that OpenAI will collapse but, if so, it won't be due to any kind of growth stall from 2024) July 2024: "Generative AI, as I said back in March, is peaking, if it hasn't already peaked. It cannot do much more than it is currently doing, other than doing more of it faster with some new inputs" Wrong July 2024: "Gen...