Voice From The East
🔴 MUHAMMAD SINWAR, HIS SUCCESSOR AND WHAT IT MEANS FOT HAMAS’S FUTURE If Mohammed Sinwar, has indeed been eliminated, the man likely to replace him is Izz al-Din al-Haddad, commander of Hamas’s northern division. Muhammad Sinwar rose to prominence following the assassination of Mohammed Deif, positioning himself as the military leader in Gaza. M. Sinwar’s was seen as a central obstacle to any hostage release deal, though similar accusations were made about his brother, Yahya Sinwar, it’s important to note that leadership personalities may shift, but Hamas’s negotiation strategy rarely does: No matter who would lead the terror organisation, the agenda stays the same: Prolonging the process, avoid full concessions, and use hostages as long-term assets by never giving all of them back. UNDERSTANDING THE POWER DYNAMIC To understand the implications of Sinwar’s elimination, we must examine the power structure within Hamas: Yahya Sinwar assumed political leadership of Gaza in 2017, consolidating his power with a second term in 2021. He pushed out the elders of Hamas from the West Bank, including Khaled Mashal and Mousa Abu Marzouk. This shift aligned Hamas more closely with the IRGC in Iran, especially after Mashal and others were forced out of Syria, a move backed by Iran’s leadership. Since then, Yahya Sinwar has effectively transformed Hamas from a semi-independent Palestinian movement into a full Iranian proxy, limiting the influence of its foreign-based leadership. However, with the reports of direct communication between the U.S. and Hamas, a new development is emerging. The external leadership in Qatar, which has been politically marginalized since 2021, appears to be reasserting itself, possibly seeking U.S. guarantees in exchange for disarmament, a scenario that was previously off the table under Sinwar’s authority. WHY THIS MATTERS FOR NEGOTIATIONS If the external leadership regains control, it could drastically change the negotiation landscape. Unlike the Gaza-based faction, Hamas leaders abroad in Qatar, are more susceptible to regional and international pressure. This could improve the chances of securing a hostages deal. The U.S.-Hamas backchannel, reportedly involving CIA Director David Barnea and White House Coordinator Brett McGurk, may indicate an opening. Following Trump’s recent visit to the Middle East, there’s also renewed potential for regional actors, such as Egypt and the UAE, to step in and pressure Hamas toward an agreement. Yahya Sinwar had previously banned Hamas officials from engaging with Mohammad Dahlan in Cairo, undermining Egyptian mediation. A leadership shift back to the external wing could restore that channel, allowing Arab states to play a greater role in pushing for a resolution. THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF ELIMINATIONS Beyond the political implications, each senior Hamas elimination carries operational benefits for Israel. It disrupts Hamas’s command-and-control structure, especially during wartime. If al-Haddad becomes the new central figure, he will likely be a high-priority target, along with Shaaban, Hamas’s southern commander. Removing both would deliver a significant blow to Hamas’s military hierarchy, potentially hastening the collapse of its battlefield structure: a stated objective since the war began. Hamas is struggling financially. For the past 3 months, the organization has been unable to pay salaries to its fighters. Morale is plummeting. This may partly explain Hamas’s attempts to increase Gaza’s humanitarian crisis: doing so attracts aid, which can then be sold on black markets to finance the organisation. The elimination of Mohammed Sinwar is more than just tactics, it may also trigger a realignment within Hamas. Should the external leadership capitalize on this moment to regain authority, the door to meaningful negotiations could open wider. But for now, all eyes are on Izz al-Din al-Haddad and Nabil Shaaban, they are definitely next in the eliminations line.
