Gregory Brew
Headlines over the last week notwithstanding, the leadership may still time working to Iran's advantage. Oil is flowing but not in its prewar volumes, and at considerable risk (and cost). The US military must shepherd every barrel through. Other goods (esp. LNG) are still trapped. Attitudes surrounding the war in the US remain gloomy and are likely to remain so. Domestic fuel prices will remain high (shuttling crude is doing little to alleviate the diesel refining bottleneck). Tehran may believe that continuing to squeeze Hormuz, and taking more steps to disrupt the flow, will keep the pressure on Trump, to the point that he is forced to accept their terms.