Gregory Brew
Iran's government is moving forward with gasoline subsidy reform, increasing the price at the pump for gasoline bought in excess of mandated quotas. Due to the US blockade, Iran faces a shortfall of about 10% in its domestic supply, as consumption has historically run ahead of domestic fuel output. Normally this would be met with imports. But now Iran faces a deficit that will have to made up through lower consumption. Raising prices is the easiest way to curb consumption. The move is certain to be controversial (it's is already drawing criticism), and may inspire protests, as was the case in 2019, the last time the govt tried subsidy reform. However, wartime conditions, a securitized environment, the fresh memory of the protests last January, and the fact that security services are likely ready for unrest make this a very different environment from 2019. Tbh if anyone protests, it will likely be hardline opponents of the president, using this issue as a way to undermine his position (something that also happened in 2019!).