Gregory Brew
I never bought the "Iranians will escalate aggressively" argument that started to gain traction about a month ago, once flows in Hormuz began ticking up. On the one hand, they're likely deterred from serious escalation by the damage they would come from another major round of fighting. But on the other hand, they may still see time ultimately working in their favor--a partial opening of Hormuz eases the pressure on Trump but does not eliminate it entirely. The attritional strategy that they've stuck to all year may yet prove effective--even if the cost is a protracted economic crisis that raises the risk of serious internal unrest.
Alex Almeida
The wimping out by the Iranians over the last three weeks is not something that I can properly make sense of. Iran has had escalation dominance at every point in this conflict since April. Now - Trumpian verbal gymnastics & denials of reality, "prohibited zones", etc