The draft proposal for an Israeli-Lebanese agreement is incredibly favorable to Israel. There are two reasons for that. 1. Israel has shown it has the will and the ability to exact massive costs from those who attack our cities and civilians. Lebanon would like to avoid that. 2. More interestingly, Lebanon is grateful. Yes, really. Israel was extremely careful to target Hezbollah alone. Damage to other Lebanese factions, areas or institutions has been minuscule. With every IDF advance, the Lebanese army simply left the area. The Lebanese military knew this wasn’t a war against Lebanon but only against Hezbollah. It behaved accordingly. On the political front, Hezbollah’s weakening has brought calls for reform, including calls to weaken Iranian influence, from almost every part of the political spectrum, including even some Shia politicians. Long-time Hezbollah allies like the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is a case in point. Ditto Michel Aoun and others. None of them love Israel. All are grateful for Hezbollah’s weakening. In other words, the proposed deal is favorable to Israel — because Lebanon wants it to be. No other regional power has the will or capability to prevent a resurgence of Iranian influence in the country, and with it a return to the slow self-immolation that Hezbollah had imposed on Lebanon. I’ve had some hard questions about Israeli strategy in Gaza going forward. Not so in Lebanon. The strategy in Lebanon has been clear-eyed, focused and effective. https://bird.makeup/@academic_la/1851693498908709379
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