There’s a lot of talk right now about the Mossad pagers operation. Since the operation was so spectacularly successful, and since Israel finally seems to be taking the initiative against its enemies in recent weeks, foreign observers who don’t follow our politics in detail might reasonably feel that critics like me, who think we’ve been poorly served by our leaders for most of the past 15 months, should explain themselves. Our leaders, I believe, have mostly weakened us, hurt morale and avoided difficult decisions while cowering behind petty politics. How, then, has Israel emerged so successful? This is the general thrust of questions I get every time I critique Netanyahu. See for example the question posed below. FWIW, here’s my answer. The pager operation is actually a great frame for offering my answer - for showing the vast gulf between the country’s competence and our leaders’ culture of cowardice. Netanyahu spent a long time avoiding pulling the trigger on the pager operation. He was frightened, like most of the cabinet, by the army’s assessment that it would trigger a disastrous war. So what changed? There’s a running joke among cabinet ministers that the northern operation, which the army called “Northern Arrows,” should instead be called “Gideon’s Sword.” That’s because in October, the army, on Galant’s orders, radically changed its assessment and began to argue it could win decisively and cheaply against Hezbollah. What changed? Politics, that’s what. Netanyahu had just struck a deal to replace Galant with Gideon Sa’ar, adding Sa’ar’s party to his coalition. This would have helped stabilize the coalition, reduce Galant-led opposition in Likud to a Haredi draft deal and, he hoped, deflect growing right-wing criticism of his handling of the war onto the ousted minister. And that’s when Galant and the IDF suddenly grew bullish on Israeli capabilities. The decision to go after Hezbollah began as a bid to stave off the replacement. So Netanyahu only came around after the army did. But why? He had the votes in the cabinet to escalate in Lebanon sooner. Public polling favored going after Hezbollah. Every longtime Netanyahu observer - Hebrew-speaking, that is - knows the answer. Netanyahu only agrees to risky operations when he has the support of the bureaucracy - i.e., someone he can blame if it fails. This hesitancy and defensiveness is present on every single policy front, from judicial reform to foreign workers to Haredi stipends. And it is one of the great right-wing frustrations with him over the years. And that, more or less, is how all major decisions are made in a Netanyahu government. Remember Rafah? Netanyahu caved to American pressure for four long and pointless months during which everyone suffered for his cowardice. He only went in when Smotrich threatened to leave the coalition - and then we all learned just how feckless that US pressure really was. This is also a critique of Galant obviously, who gave us a tremendous victory against Hezbollah only when his political situation forced him to. It’s not just Bibi. It’s this whole generation of weak-kneed politicians. It’s the culture Netanyahu helped inculcate during his long years in power. Israel is successful because of numerous inherent strengths possessed by its population, not because it has good leaders. Netanyahu tells every foreigner who will listen that without his strong leadership, this country would find itself weak and vulnerable. He’s wrong. The country itself is strong. Its leadership is mostly inept and cowardly. Netanyahu’s chief skill lies in casting blame on others for every failure (think October 7) and taking credit for successes he only grudgingly agreed to let someone else bring about. Bottom line: This is all good news. It’s why people like me are so bullish on Israel’s future. This country’s strengths run deep. And always emerge at the last, even when our own leaders lose faith in them. https://bird.makeup/@kinadia3/1871126115315839009
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