Haviv Rettig Gur
From what I know, this is a good summary of the war’s current state at the moment. And why Trump’s deal is worth doing, if Hamas will agree to it.
Saul Sadka
Two months into the IDF's Gideon's Chariots operation in Gaza, what's the current state of terroritial control? The blue areas are under full IDF control and have largely been cleared. Any return to these areas by Hamas after a ceasefire would be fairly futile. The light orange area was entirely rubbled by the IDF in 2024 and is under IDF fire control, as are several other pockets. The IDF is inching forward on the northern and eastern edges of Gaza City, smashing its way through, leaving no strong points for Hamas to return to if there is any deal. This aligns with the claim by a Hamas official to the BBC that Hamas now controls just 20% of the Strip, while the IDF claims to control 65%. The remaining 15% includes much of the Netzarim corridor and the remaining sliver of land between Rafah and Khan Yunis. The IDF isn’t present there, but Hamas does not operate there either, and the population has largely fled. All in all, it’s not bad progress for two months. The IDF has increased its control of Gaza from 20% to 65%, including perhaps a third of Gaza City and its suburbs, as well as large parts of Khan Yunis and its surrounding areas. The only factor dragging the war out is the presence of 20 living hostages, spread across strategic locations, and being used essentially as fortifications. The only realistic hope of rescuing them through military means is to so thoroughly decimate the Hamas command structure that Israel can cut side deals with the individual commanders holding them. A 60-day truce that sees that number reduced to 10 will see Hamas greatly weakened, since they have half the number of these "human fortifications" and any land the IDF withdraw from will be easily recaptured, since all their traps etc. are gone along with the vast majority of the buildings. Hamas can not fight the IDF in the open. The entire 20 months of war has been a vast and complex battlefield shaping operation that is as yet incomplete. Hamas spent 20 years building the most complex battlefield in history, and Israel has now spent 20 months dismantling it and shaping the battlefield in its favour.
