Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

@citrinowicz · Twitter · 2025-03-27 20:52 UTC

To follow @BarakRavid report - A short analysis on the chances of escalation vs. negotiating between #Iran and the #USA regarding the Iranian nuclear program: 1. In general, Although the leaders of Iran and the United States prefer a diplomatic solution regarding Iran's nuclear program, the deep distrust between the parties, the gaps in their positions, and the misreading of the other's intentions increase the likelihood of an unprecedented escalation between the countries in the coming weeks. 2. The Iranian leader, Khamenei, and the Iranian leadership are trying to deter the US from attacking Iran by using public threats and various publications about Tehran's conventional capabilities("the stick"), while the same Iranian leadership is signaling its willingness to negotiate with the IAEA and the US (not directly) and is willing to providing "guarantees" to the international community that its nuclear program is intended for "peaceful purposes"(the "carrot"). The Iranian goal is to reach an agreement that will remove all sanctions on Tehran for minimal concessions or a least to conduct negotiations with the US that will cease the maximum pressure campaign and prevent the E3 from operating the "snapback" mechanism. 3. President Trump and his team are trying to increase pressure on Iran by restoring "maximum economic pressure" and increasing the number of strategic bombers on the island of Diego Garcia hoping for Iranian "capitalization" by accepting some sort of "Lybian model" while declaring that US still wants to reach an agreement and not to escalate. 4. If the administration ia truly seeks the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program, it is a demand that the Iranian leadership will not comply with under any circumstances. For Iran, it's right to enrich Uranium is sacred and forgoing it will put the regime in danger in their own eyes (maybe more dangerous than an attack). They will be willing for some "save face" steps but nothing that will be close to the US demands (unless President Trump will be satisfied with "assurances" by the Iranians that their program is for "peaceful means"). 5. Thus, despite the basic desire shared by both parties to the agreement, the steps the US is taking (aimed at forcing Iran to the negotiating table and accepting American demands) and its desire to completely dismantle the program - only prove to the leadership in Tehran, whose level of trust in Trump is already extremely low, that the US is not in favor of the agreement. 6. The bottom line is that although the parties prefer a political process, given the ultimatum that President Trump has given Iran to reach an agreement - two months and the Iranian willingness only for indirect talks, plus the gaps between thale sids regarding the future of Irans nuclear program - its obvious that the chances of escalation between the parties are increasing and are significantly higher than any agreement. 6. Contrary to the basic interest of both countries, without a dramatic change in President Trump's positions including a willingness to correspond with Iranian demands regarding a future agreement, or agreeing to stop maximum pressure campaign for Iranian willingness to "indirect talks" with the US - escalation now seems almost inevitable.