Liam Donovan
A little goofy, but downstream from question of Senate control. If you are convicted that Dems will win the senate, which is a very popular position these days, that implies a sweep, so 44% tracks. What likely throws the split off is 16% R sweep, which CW doesn't take seriously.
Chris Cillizza
Here's an odd one (to me): Odds on @polymarket of Dems sweeping House and Senate are HIGHER than odds of split control. Split control -- given the states Dems have to win in Senate -- seems to me MUCH more likely (NOTE: Polymarket is a sponsor of my content. But I use their