Max Fisher
The "if we don't build it then China will" problem is real but it is solvable. We know because it's the same problem we faced with carbon emissions. No one thought China would ever agree to mutual, verifiable curbs. Until, with some work, they did.
Derek Thompson
Some thoughts, welcoming feedback: 1. If the frontier labs feel obligated to build something they think is dangerous because China is going to build it anyway, we'd better be really sure that China is going to build it anyway. Like, really, really, really sure. Are we? Are we actually sure? The CCP wants to build an out-of-control, recursively self-improving model bc its neurotically, control-obsessed government thinks this is a policy worth pursing? We're 100% sure about that? 2. At the very least, we know that Chinese models distill American models to keep up with the frontier. So, any slowdown by the US seems like it would mechanically and automatically slow the ability of China to distill its way to progress. If we're afraid of the rate of progress, isn't that a good thing?