In reply to @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger · Twitter ·

In this 13th wave, PMC estimates >3.5 million weekly infections in the US, which are expected to promote up to 1,600 excess deaths. Estimates link CDC and Biobot wastewater data to IHME case estimates and Swiss Re excess mortality forecasts. THREAD (4/5) 🧵

Infections Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 86 (1.2%) New Daily Infections 567,000 Infections the Past Week 3,690,000 Infections in 2026 103,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.39 Long COVlD Long COVlD Cases Resulting from New Daily Infections 28,000 to 113,000 Long COVlD Cases Resulting from New Weekly Infections 185,000 to 740,000 Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting from New Daily Infections 140 to 250 Excess Deaths Resulting from New Weekly Infections 900 to 1,600 13 waves Number of People Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.2% 2 2.3% 3 3.4% 4 4.5% 5 5.7% 10 11.0% 15 16.0% 20 20.8% 25 25.2% 30 29.5% 50 44.1% 75 58.2% 100 68.8% 200 90.2% 300 97.0% Barometer, higher transmission of late, but also average relative to the entire time period since pandemic onset