I didn’t really expect my analysis of Hamas’ strategy to be validated by Sinwar himself, but there you have it. 1) They aim to degrade Israel’s standing internationally, primarily through an international disinformation campaign facilitated by decades of influence work to subvert the Western political left. 2) Deaths of civilians are a calculated and deliberate human sacrifice that leverages point 1). We’ve seen time and time again that it doesn’t matter what precautions Israel takes or how demonstrably spectacularly they have succeeded in minimising civilian casualties, or who is at fault. Hamas are going to spin any and all deaths, their own fighters included, in the worst possible way to support their narrative to undermine Israel. And this strategy has been genuinely successful so far. No bones about it. To counter it and achieve success in removing Hamas from power, Israel is going to have to show extraordinary determination to resist ceasefire calls brought about by the effects of Hamas’ international strategy. The offer currently under international discussion is disaster for Israel, almost indescribable in scale. It represents total strategic failure of this military operation. This information battle will arguably be even more difficult than winning the tactical battle on the ground, which, as we’ve seen, is going extremely well. It boils down to this: Hamas remain a credible actor in Gaza = disastrous failure. Hamas minimised = impressive success. American support for Israel may well be the decisive factor in how much their determination to continue can afford to cost.
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