Many commentators, myself included, noted over past months that the lesson from 2006 is how difficult a ground war would be in Lebanon for the IDF. The last week has shifted the paradigm. Astonishing saturation of Hezbollah by Israeli intelligence has enabled them to identify and kill all of Hezbollah’s senior command network with air strikes. I noted in June that before any ground offensive, there would be a massive series of air strikes targeting commanders and rocket launch sites. The whole Hezbollah senior command chain is now dead, and some reports suggest Hezbollah rocket stores are reduced by 50%. They have not managed to hit any site of strategic importance in Israel in response to this IDF escalation. The terrain and tunnels in Southern Lebanon have not changed, but Hezbollah’s command and control, and their strategic ability to counter-punch is now degraded significantly. Any ground operation now faces a much easier ride. So will there be a ground invasion? Hard to say but less likely. Northern Israeli communities are unsafe whilst within range of what remains of their weapons, but a ground invasion hinges on whether Hezbollah are deterred by the certain death and injury of thousands of their fighters. Are they willing to die for Iran? The IDF have shown the ability to degrade them incessantly from the sky. The “air power only” approach was a disaster for NATO in Libya because it created a vacuum to be filled by malign actors, including Islamic State. There should be no vacuum in Lebanon after Hezbollah are eradicated as there is a Lebanese government already in place - hopefully soon to be more free of the toxic Iranian Hezbollah cancer that has been consuming their country like a parasite. A ground war may not now be needed. Because that’s who is behind all this, remember. Tehran is watching their favourite proxy being dismantled and they are powerless to respond. Will we see a rush for nuclear weapons from Iran in response to the degradation of their proxy strategy, and will Israel respond? One final thought. Once again we see the weakness in the West’s obsession with deescalation and diplomacy. Sometimes force is necessary and needed. Remember Ronald Reagan’s words: “We know that peace is the condition under which mankind was meant to flourish. Yet peace does not exist of its own will. It depends on us, on our courage to build it and guard it and pass it on to future generations. George Washington's words may seem hard and cold today, but history has proven him right again and again. ‘To be prepared for war,’ he said, ‘is one of the most effective means of preserving peace.’”
See Tweet