Nate Silver
The AI risk people actually do show their work! There are hundreds of working papers, thousands of LessWrong posts, literally entire best-selling books about this.
rat king 🐀
a frustrating thing about all the "TK percent chance we die" headlines is that researchers can say any number and non-technical people will just be like "damn well that guy's in tech, im worried" show your work! is this about scaling laws or some arxiv file ive yet to read?