Oliver Habryka
After Jacob Coxon's resignation and extinction warnings, a lot of people are asking 'how could AI possibly kill everyone?' and claiming AI safety researchers have no realistic answer. This is false! Here are the 5 best scenarios I know of: AI 2027: http://ai-2027.com (I strongly recommend this one for being realistic, engaging, and if you dig into the appendices, highly detailed) Paul Christiano's scenario (Former Head of Safety @ AISI, 2019): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/what-failure-looks-like Gwern Branwen's scenario (widely known independent AI researcher, 2022): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5e9arCnbDac9Doig/it-looks-like-you-re-trying-to-take-over-the-world Holden Karnofsky's high-level explanation (RSP Lead @ Anthropic, 2022): https://www.cold-takes.com/ai-could-defeat-all-of-us-combined/ Joshua Clymer's scenario (ex-OpenAI, 2025): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFJ2LFogYqzfGB3uX/how-ai-takeover-might-happen-in-2-years (There's also the Sable story from http://ifanyonebuilds.it, though you'll have to buy the book to read that one.) Writing concrete, specific risk scenarios with enormous amounts of detail has been a major research project of many of the most prominent voices in the field! (With the current leaders in effort being http://ai-2040.com and http://ai-2027.com)