Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦
What do the US election results mean for Ukraine? 1. Ukraine will gain many new supporters in Congress. Many Democratic lawmakers will replace Trump’s MAGA minions. This could strengthen congressional support for Ukraine and create new opportunities for bipartisan cooperation. 2. Unfortunately, Ukraine will also lose some of its Republican friends. Not every Republican losing a seat is an opponent of Ukraine. Some have been among Ukraine’s strongest supporters, and their departure would be a genuine loss. Representatives Brian Fitzpatrick and Mike Lawler, as well as Senator Susan Collins, will most likely lose their seats. Other pro-Ukraine Republicans may also be leaving Congress. 3. Congress will be able to put much greater pressure on Trump. Democrats will control both chambers of Congress, including legislative agendas, budgets, and investigative committees. Trump will retain significant executive authority, but Congress will be able to challenge his decisions, investigate sanctions relief, and scrutinize restrictions on military assistance to Ukraine. 4. Ukraine could receive substantial new military assistance. Democrats could advance new funding packages for weapons, ammunition, and air defense. With bipartisan Republican support, Congress could pursue longer-term commitments that would make American assistance more predictable. Trump’s veto power and his allegiance to Putin would remain important obstacles. 5. Russia could face much stronger economic sanctions. Congress could pass legislation targeting Russian oil exports, financial institutions, and companies helping Russia circumvent sanctions. Unlike executive orders, statutory sanctions would be more difficult for Trump to reverse unilaterally. 6. Ukraine’s negotiating position could strengthen considerably. This is perhaps the most important strategic implication. Putin’s incentive to prolong the war partly depends on his expectation that American support for Ukraine will weaken. If Congress establishes credible long-term military assistance and sanctions, Moscow would have to reconsider the benefits of waiting. Read my article on Substack: https://romansheremeta.substack.com/p/what-do-the-us-election-results-mean
