Scott Lincicome
Good take. My only addition/questions: since this is just a pause (and since it takes many weeks for goods to cross the Pacific by ship), is it enough to restart commerce, especially for smaller biz, and will there be another mad rush to import/export?
Richard Baldwin
US-China deal? 1) Trump said US would lower tariffs to 80% or so, thus giving China face-save it needed to start talks (e.g. spin: US asked and admitted they were wrong and would lower tariffs, so we can talk with mutual respect for mutual gain), 2) US removed all the China-specific 2 April tariffs & retaliation leaving only the 10% base (20% fentanyl is something else), 3) China matched the 10%. Takeaway? The US was desperate to have a face-saver for reversing Trump's mistakes without admitting they were mistakes. China was will to play along and stretch its 'no bullying' redline to avoid the bankruptcies the 145% were causing.