Sean Speer

@sean_speer · Twitter · 2026-08-26 13:26 UTC

Trump’s threats and provocations are unjustified and stupid. Canadians are rightly angry. But we can’t lose our heads. Thinking about the situation as “keep[ing] the bridge” may be morally satisfying but it obscures far more than it clarifies. The whole issue is an exercise in tradeoffs between restoring market access and the necessary political compromises. There are also questions about the efficacy of retaliations (including non tariff ones) and counterfactuals about optimal timing. One can accept that the last-minute issues raised by the administration last week may have made the proposed deal intolerable. (It must be said though that we don’t know whether the administration sought changes to French-language protections or the broader liberalization of CanCon—with the former being mostly unacceptable and the latter being a reasonable and even good outcome.) But it can also be true that the reports of the initial deal suggest that the inherent tradeoffs—namely ongoing auto tariffs—may have been difficult yet ultimately worth it to preserve tariff-free access for the vast majority of Canadian exports. We’re far beyond optimal outcomes. We’re in a world of adjudicating third, fourth or fifth best options. There are obvious limits on politicians being able to speak publicly in these terms. But in the current circumstances, it seems to me that the role of analysts and commentators is to help Canadians think through these painful tradeoffs rather than inflame their passions.