Trita Parsi
As Bessent declares D-Day sanctions, a few points to keep in mind, as I wrote on my Substack: 1. Yes, this can squeeze the Iranians. But the pattern so far is that pain is inflicted, but translating that pain into a policy change is a different matter. The US has almost never succeeded in doing that. 2. This is particularly true since Bessent is not even listing what the US demands are. This leaves Tehran with the impression that the goal of the sanctions is Iran's surrender. And it's very clear that the Iranians will choose escalation over surrender. 3. This was the massive miscalculation Trump committed at the outset of this war, since he believed that Iran would fear war so much that it would choose capitulation. He never understood that Tehran feared surrender far more than it feared war. That still holds true today. 4. As a result, instead of this ending the war, the D-Day sanctions are more likely to elicit Iranian counter-escalation and, as a result, turn out to be yet another round in this long-standing escalation cycle. 5. There is a scenario in which the pain inflicted on Iran is more limited and, as a result, Tehran refrains from an immediate counter-escalation. But the combination of the blockade and these sanctions will very likely squeeze Iran over the longer run, which will incentivize Tehran to counter-escalate sooner rather than later, as its trajectory will be negative. As such, such a new status quo will be inherently unstable, and the absence of an Iranian response should not be misread. https://tritaparsi.substack.com/p/has-trump-turned-the-tables-on-iran