Yair Rosenberg
OK, I don't like going long on here, because I don't work for this site, but: 1. The Gaza ceasefire, however flawed, is vastly preferable to what came before. It is good for the people of Gaza and for the people of Israel. 2. Both Israel and Hamas have voluminous claims of how the other has violated parts of the extensive agreement. But fundamentally, both have adhered to the core obligations that make it work: Israeli hostages released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and IDF withdrawal from Gazan territory. 2. As I've written from day 1, Netanyahu's hard-right coalition partners not only want to return to war, but to ethnically cleanse and resettle Gaza. They may capsize his government if he does not return to war after phase 1, giving him strong incentive to derail the agreement before phase 2. 3. Phase 2 starts in March. 4. Hamas has every incentive to let Netanyahu take the blame for the ceasefire collapsing then, yet they just threatened to stop releasing hostages almost a month before phase 2, potentially handing Bibi the perfect pretext for returning to war. This requires explanation. 5. The explanations provided by many do not hold up. "Israel has been violating the ceasefire since day 2" -- if true, then why did Hamas continue with the agreement for a month? What changed? "Israel has not allowed enough aid" -- same problem, and also, no one really disputes that Israel is allowing exponentially more aid than before the ceasefire, as well as allowing displaced Gazans to return to the north, so blowing up the deal will not make things better. This sort of dispute is also readily resolved through mediation, and has been in the past. 6. So, what has actually changed? (a) Israel just completed withdrawing from the Netzarim corridor, in accordance with its obligations. This is arguably the most geopolitically significant thing that has happened during the entire ceasefire. The Netzarim corridor bisects Gaza and Israel invested tremendous resources building bases there (see NYT investigation: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/02/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-bases-netzarim.html). Those bases would be the linchpin of any long-term occupation and/or resettlement plan. And now they're gone, along with the immediate threat of those things. A huge victory for Hamas. (b) Hamas experienced a major PR disaster when the last batch of hostages came out looking emaciated. This was exacerbated by the fact that Hamas has been parading released Israelis in front of the cameras for bizarre staged shows on TV in which they are compelled to thank their captors. Nothing about Israel's poor treatment of some Palestinian captives changes this reality or the PR problem it poses for Hamas. 7. So why is Hamas suddenly threatening to blow up the deal over seemingly pretextual problems it didn't care about before? Maybe they want more time to prepare the next batch of hostages for release. Perhaps they are considering pocketing the major strategic victory of Netzarim and returning to fighting. Or it could be bluster that they will back down from before Saturday. One way or the other, I hope the deal stays on the rails and the people of the region are spared more war.