In reply to @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger · Twitter ·

2/ The winter peak should arrive between Jan 3 and Jan 17. The model estimates a peak of 1.7 to 2.2 million infections per day. If unlucky, 1 in 20 people will be infectious, and it will be the 2nd largest wave. If lucky, more like 1 in 30, and the 4th largest wave. Consider

U.S. Winter 2023-24 COVID Surge Best Estimate Range Rank among COVID waves 2nd 2nd 4th Date of peak Jan 10 Jan 3 Jan 17 Daily infections at peak 2.0 million/day 1.7 million/day 2.2 million/day Percentage of population infectious at peak 4.2% (1 in 24) 3.7% (1 in 27) 4.6% (1 in 22)